未来学

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未来学(futurology)

研究当前趋势以预测未来发展之一门社会科学。其研究法则源自第二次世界大战快结束时发展出的，并检讨一场核战争的潜在後果。1960年代的研究是预测未来社会模式和需求。1972年梅多斯与麻省理工学院的同事联合发表《成长的极限》一文，报告中以全球各种社会经济趋势为重点，提出一项马尔萨斯式观点，认为人口增加、工业扩张、污染恶化、粮食生产不足、天然资源枯竭的速度如再以当前的趋势继续下去的话，势必导致世界秩序崩溃。有关这些观点和其他研究的评论，主要是针对所列举模式的局限性和由此提出的各项规划的主观臆断性。未来学家本身大致上认识到这种种困难，但却强调其分析技巧已因吸取数学、经济学、环境研究及电脑学各方面的研究成果而日趋精细。其他重要的未来学基本着作有托夫勒的《未来震撼》（1970）、贝尔的《後工业社会的来临》（1973）、谢尔的《地球的安危》（1982）和考尔德的《绿色机器》（1986）。

English version：

futurology

Study of current trends in order to forecast future developments. The field originated in the “technological forecasting” developed near the end of World War II and in studies examining the consequences of nuclear conflict. Studies in the 1960s sought to anticipate future social patterns and needs. The Limits of Growth by Dennis Meadows et al. (1972) focused on global socioeconomic trends, projecting a Malthusian vision in which the collapse of the world order would result if population growth, industrial expansion, pollution, food production, and natural-resource use continued at current rates. Later reports reiterated many of these concerns, with critics contending that futurologists' models were flawed and futurologists responding that their analytic techniques were becoming increasingly sophisticated. Other notable works include Alvin Toffler's Future Shock (1970), Daniel Bell's The Coming of Post-Industrial Society (1973), Jonathan Schell's The Fate of the Earth (1982), and Nigel Calder's The Green Machines (1986).